New information has come out recently as finished pilots are being sent to the networks, and prediction lists for renewal or cancellation are becoming more refined. Deadline.com on Friday did their latest Hot List Update, and they have reports on six of the eight CW pilots. There’s indication that The CW might actually pick up six shows. TV Line finally updated their Renewal Scorecard List for The CW, and their intel is rather interesting.
After doing a round one, Sablegreen and I have taken a new look at our lists and come up with a “round two” analysis of The CW shows. As of print of this article, only “America’s Next Top Model” has been officially renewed. Sablegreen’s analysis is first, and then mine. As usual, we are on very different wavelengths!
Sablegreen’s Take – Round Two
As they have already renewed “America’s Next Top Model”, and assuming they are also sticking with 10 hrs of TV a week that leaves 9 hrs open. As for shows the CW will renew, I’m going with “The Vampire Diaries,” “Supernatural,” “90210,” and “Gossip Girl” (unfortunately).
TVD,” “SPN” and “90210” are CW’s 1st, 2nd and 4th highest rated shows on the network. They are also the networks veteran shows and as the CW is struggling with their new shows, I can’t see the veterans going anywhere. And of these shows that don’t do well in live viewers, they do well very well with DVR stats which have sometimes doubled their broadcast ratings.
It’s a shame they will waste a good show for “Gossip Girl,” but if it is making them money, even with poor rating, they will keep it. The show actors have one more year on their contracts, the advertisers have one more year on their contract and CW had shown a tendency to be fond of “farewell” seasons for veteran shows (“Smallville,” “One Tree Hill”), and those two farewell seasons have been well rated by CW standards. Also as for its rating, though low, they are not the lowest shows on the CW. CW would have to cancel 5 scripted shows for GG to be in danger and while uncommon, it’s not unheard of.
“The Secret Circle” is the 3rd highest rated show on the network and while it’s ratings has taken a dip in recent weeks that is not uncommon this time of year. The show has done reasonably well for 90% of the season. Besides, while renewal notices have not been released, decisions to renew or cancel have already been made. And with the shows good performance most of the season, I’m think the show will be back.
That brings us to “Ringer”, “Nikita” and “Hart of Dixie.”
The CW will likely cancel at least two dramas currently on its schedule, “Ringer’s” ratings are the lowest on the network for shows in the Monday-Thursday schedule. I can’t see it being renewed in any way shape or form. So I’m calling it canceled.
“Nikita” ratings are lower than “Hart of Dixie” but it’s on Friday nights so it gets extra consideration because of the expected lower viewing audience Friday normally has. It has also been renewed twice before, so it would start its 3rd season getting it closer to a point where syndication would be possible, and that is when a show starts making money. Also Nikita, like SPN is owned by Warner Brothers which also owns half of CW….CBS the other half. Hence the CW’s biggest job, is to create value in shows for its parent networks so that they can then license them elsewhere (DVDs, Netflix, etc) and that requires getting enough episodes to make syndication a possibility. So if they pickup Nikita for a third season, it’s understood they would pick it up for a fourth, sort of ‘in for a penny, in for a pound’ concept.
Question is does the CW want to invest all that money on a show with sinking ratings. It’s possible it could be so bad by the end of s3 they would have to cancel it anyway, and then the money loss would be greater.
I can’t see it coming back unless the CW doesn’t pick up three pilots, and it is suspected that it might pick up as many as 4. It also has been shown that “Nikita” is not a good lead in for SPN and there really is no place to put the show except on Friday nights. Its ratings would be even worse on any other night. “Nikita” EP Craig Stevens recently mentioned he’d like to see “Nikita” after SPN which would certainly be better, but with SPNs TV rating, it doesn’t seem to be able to be on any earlier. I just can’t see “Nikita” being renewed so I’m calling it canceled.
Hart of Dixie” ratings are higher than “Nikita,” but not by much. In fact, after you factor in the ‘Friday allowance’ for Nikita, the shows to me are about the same. Hart of Dixie is in its 1st season, nowhere near the magic ‘syndication’ number, and it doesn’t seem to have an affiliation with WB. It does seem to have a loyal following and giving it a second chance doesn’t mean it has to be given a third. It could logically still be followed by a cancellation. I’m thinking if the CW does pick up 4 pilots, Hart of Dixie will be cancelled. If it picks up 3, the series will get a second chance.
As for the pilots, CW is sticking with hour-long dramas directed at young and/or genre-friendly audiences. It is also trying to increase its viewer audience by selecting pilots with built in audience bases, as five of the eight contenders are adapted, either from comic books, other shows or novels. (“Arrow,” “Beauty and the Beast,” “The Carrie Diaries,” “Joey Dakota” and “The Selection”). I’m told early word from Deadline is that “Arrow” and “The Carrie Diaries” are going to be picked up, “Beauty and the Beast” is likely to be also and “Cult “and “First Cut” are picking up momentum.
I can see “Arrow.” It’s based on a DC comic book, and those have always done well with the younger audience. And it is one I would try. “The Carrie Diaries” is based on a book by Candace Bushnell about a younger teenager’s exploits as she comes of age in the ’80s. Not for me, but seems many feel it will have a lot of appeal to CW’s viewers.
Beauty and the Beast” is based on a popular romantic TV show about a deformed man and a city DA. The CW version will not use the previous show’s format and will have a twist in its plot. Seems the beauty will meet the beast at a very young age. Again not for me
Cult” seems to be a good one as I love mysteries and I’m glad to see it’s liked by others. I hope it’s one that’s picked. I also like “The Selection” which is not doing too well in the interest category. It is more of a SyFy show which has done well on CW in the past.
I really think they will pick up only three pilots, but if more look good and Mark P is dead set on eliminating Dawn O., he could pick up 4. Right now that seems to be “Arrow,” “The Carrie Diaries,” “Beauty and the Beast” and “Cult.” Which would mean “Hart of Dixie” would be canceled.
While I would LOVE to see SPN move to Tuesday nights and follow Arrow, I can’t see it happening so it will stay on Friday. And no way TVD will change days either, so it’s a stable on Thursday.
Monday: 90210, Gossip Girl
I’d move 90210 to Mondays to free up Tuesday to be and all action/Sci-fi night.
Tuesday: Arrow, Cult
Don’t know if two new shows are ever put on a night back to back, but I think the action/adventure/mystery of both would keep people watching all night.
Wednesday: ANTM, The Carrie Diaries
Thursday: TVD, Beauty and the Beast
In a way, they are both romances and have a SyFy nature so would appeal to the same people
Friday: TSC, SPN.
I really think TSC will be a good lead in for SPN. It is a SyFy show about witches and SPN is a SyFy show about all kinds of dark creatures, so I can see those turning in for TSC would stay for SPN.
(On the next page, Alice’s Take)