New information has come out recently as finished pilots are being sent to the networks, and prediction lists for renewal or cancellation are becoming more refined. Deadline.com on Friday did their latest Hot List Update, and they have reports on six of the eight CW pilots. There’s indication that The CW might actually pick up six shows. TV Line finally updated their Renewal Scorecard List for The CW, and their intel is rather interesting.
After doing a round one, Sablegreen and I have taken a new look at our lists and come up with a “round two” analysis of The CW shows. As of print of this article, only “America’s Next Top Model” has been officially renewed. Sablegreen’s analysis is first, and then mine. As usual, we are on very different wavelengths!
Sablegreen’s Take – Round Two
As they have already renewed “America’s Next Top Model”, and assuming they are also sticking with 10 hrs of TV a week that leaves 9 hrs open. As for shows the CW will renew, I’m going with “The Vampire Diaries,” “Supernatural,” “90210,” and “Gossip Girl” (unfortunately).
TVD,” “SPN” and “90210” are CW’s 1st, 2nd and 4th highest rated shows on the network. They are also the networks veteran shows and as the CW is struggling with their new shows, I can’t see the veterans going anywhere. And of these shows that don’t do well in live viewers, they do well very well with DVR stats which have sometimes doubled their broadcast ratings.
It’s a shame they will waste a good show for “Gossip Girl,” but if it is making them money, even with poor rating, they will keep it. The show actors have one more year on their contracts, the advertisers have one more year on their contract and CW had shown a tendency to be fond of “farewell” seasons for veteran shows (“Smallville,” “One Tree Hill”), and those two farewell seasons have been well rated by CW standards. Also as for its rating, though low, they are not the lowest shows on the CW. CW would have to cancel 5 scripted shows for GG to be in danger and while uncommon, it’s not unheard of.
“The Secret Circle” is the 3rd highest rated show on the network and while it’s ratings has taken a dip in recent weeks that is not uncommon this time of year. The show has done reasonably well for 90% of the season. Besides, while renewal notices have not been released, decisions to renew or cancel have already been made. And with the shows good performance most of the season, I’m think the show will be back.
That brings us to “Ringer”, “Nikita” and “Hart of Dixie.”
The CW will likely cancel at least two dramas currently on its schedule, “Ringer’s” ratings are the lowest on the network for shows in the Monday-Thursday schedule. I can’t see it being renewed in any way shape or form. So I’m calling it canceled.
“Nikita” ratings are lower than “Hart of Dixie” but it’s on Friday nights so it gets extra consideration because of the expected lower viewing audience Friday normally has. It has also been renewed twice before, so it would start its 3rd season getting it closer to a point where syndication would be possible, and that is when a show starts making money. Also Nikita, like SPN is owned by Warner Brothers which also owns half of CW….CBS the other half. Hence the CW’s biggest job, is to create value in shows for its parent networks so that they can then license them elsewhere (DVDs, Netflix, etc) and that requires getting enough episodes to make syndication a possibility. So if they pickup Nikita for a third season, it’s understood they would pick it up for a fourth, sort of ‘in for a penny, in for a pound’ concept.
Question is does the CW want to invest all that money on a show with sinking ratings. It’s possible it could be so bad by the end of s3 they would have to cancel it anyway, and then the money loss would be greater.
I can’t see it coming back unless the CW doesn’t pick up three pilots, and it is suspected that it might pick up as many as 4. It also has been shown that “Nikita” is not a good lead in for SPN and there really is no place to put the show except on Friday nights. Its ratings would be even worse on any other night. “Nikita” EP Craig Stevens recently mentioned he’d like to see “Nikita” after SPN which would certainly be better, but with SPNs TV rating, it doesn’t seem to be able to be on any earlier. I just can’t see “Nikita” being renewed so I’m calling it canceled.
Hart of Dixie” ratings are higher than “Nikita,” but not by much. In fact, after you factor in the ‘Friday allowance’ for Nikita, the shows to me are about the same. Hart of Dixie is in its 1st season, nowhere near the magic ‘syndication’ number, and it doesn’t seem to have an affiliation with WB. It does seem to have a loyal following and giving it a second chance doesn’t mean it has to be given a third. It could logically still be followed by a cancellation. I’m thinking if the CW does pick up 4 pilots, Hart of Dixie will be cancelled. If it picks up 3, the series will get a second chance.
As for the pilots, CW is sticking with hour-long dramas directed at young and/or genre-friendly audiences. It is also trying to increase its viewer audience by selecting pilots with built in audience bases, as five of the eight contenders are adapted, either from comic books, other shows or novels. (“Arrow,” “Beauty and the Beast,” “The Carrie Diaries,” “Joey Dakota” and “The Selection”). I’m told early word from Deadline is that “Arrow” and “The Carrie Diaries” are going to be picked up, “Beauty and the Beast” is likely to be also and “Cult “and “First Cut” are picking up momentum.
I can see “Arrow.” It’s based on a DC comic book, and those have always done well with the younger audience. And it is one I would try. “The Carrie Diaries” is based on a book by Candace Bushnell about a younger teenager’s exploits as she comes of age in the ’80s. Not for me, but seems many feel it will have a lot of appeal to CW’s viewers.
Beauty and the Beast” is based on a popular romantic TV show about a deformed man and a city DA. The CW version will not use the previous show’s format and will have a twist in its plot. Seems the beauty will meet the beast at a very young age. Again not for me
Cult” seems to be a good one as I love mysteries and I’m glad to see it’s liked by others. I hope it’s one that’s picked. I also like “The Selection” which is not doing too well in the interest category. It is more of a SyFy show which has done well on CW in the past.
I really think they will pick up only three pilots, but if more look good and Mark P is dead set on eliminating Dawn O., he could pick up 4. Right now that seems to be “Arrow,” “The Carrie Diaries,” “Beauty and the Beast” and “Cult.” Which would mean “Hart of Dixie” would be canceled.
———————————————————————
While I would LOVE to see SPN move to Tuesday nights and follow Arrow, I can’t see it happening so it will stay on Friday. And no way TVD will change days either, so it’s a stable on Thursday.
Monday: 90210, Gossip Girl
I’d move 90210 to Mondays to free up Tuesday to be and all action/Sci-fi night.
Tuesday: Arrow, Cult
Don’t know if two new shows are ever put on a night back to back, but I think the action/adventure/mystery of both would keep people watching all night.
Wednesday: ANTM, The Carrie Diaries
Thursday: TVD, Beauty and the Beast
In a way, they are both romances and have a SyFy nature so would appeal to the same people
Friday: TSC, SPN.
I really think TSC will be a good lead in for SPN. It is a SyFy show about witches and SPN is a SyFy show about all kinds of dark creatures, so I can see those turning in for TSC would stay for SPN.
(On the next page, Alice’s Take)
Interesting analysis.
I think if Nikita is renewed it will be for a full 22 (or 23 or 24 same as SPN) episodes.
Personally, I think Secret Circle, Ringer & Hart of Dixie will be cancelled.
Mon
Arrow
Beauty & the Beast
Tue
Carrie Diaries
First Cut
Wed (Dawn Ostroff memorial schedule day)
90210
ANTM/ GG(13 episodes)
Thur
Vampire Diaries
The Selection
Fri
Nikita
Supernatural
Midseason
Cult
I like your schedule! The only thing I’d change really is adding The Secret Circle or Hart of Dixie or both to the midseason list. I love your Dawn Ostroff memorial schedule day. She’s lucky she gets one day! 🙂
For schedule spackle (as they say over at TVby the numbers) any one of HOD, TSC or even Ringer as a 13 episode pick-up would work, but I hope that Mark P is bolder than that — he already has data on those three that says they’re too weak to prosper – why throw good money after bad? I do think the exception might be HOD – it seems to have more of a pulse — the ratings go up & down, which indicates to me that with a little promo push it might go up. Ringer, not so much, since it already had the benefit of a promo campaign (out of which the network got bupkus). To me, TSC is just plain bad. And it seems like too much work to retool it to a point where it might work better especially if there are good pilots to try instead. So OK — let’s add HOD to mid-season. *g*:)
God, the CW desperately needs a semblance of a hit, doesn’t it? Two or *gasp* three shows that get better than 1.0 in the demo. SOMETHING to build on.
And I’ll tell you frankly, I am so happy that SPN is on Fridays where it can quietly churn out episodes for WB’s syndication machine. Its ridiculous for the network that its Friday show SPN has a renew/cancel index of over 1 when CBS’ Blue Bloods only has a .58 (and is renewed!).
Except for TVD, M-TH on the CW sucks and it will take at least two years to build it and then I can see TVD joing SPN on Fridays. (In my dreams Nikita gets seasons 3 & 4 – I’m not sure that can really happen though)
So long as SPN doesn’t crater (and even if it does) the CW has other things to worry about besides its Friday night. SPN – season 11 here we come — I want JA to have those bragging rights over TW. 😉
I’m all for those bragging rights as well! Tom Welling does need to suck it! 😆
If you work in DVR ratings, Supernatural is around a 1.1 or 1.2 consistently, and so is The Secret Circle. Other shows aren’t even breaking 1.0. It’s really sad. In an ideal network situation, a show in it’s 7th year shouldn’t be your number two show. It should be your number five show. NBC has the very same issue with Law and Order: SVU, number one drama in it’s 11th season!
Sorry, where was I? I’m with you on HOD. I think that show has not benefitted at all from a Gossip Girl lead in. The problem is, will it do better mid season? Hard to say. I see potential with it though. As for TSC, like I said, it’s all going to depend on the season two pitch. The network needs to see the creative potential. Ringer has a chance based on that too, but it’s a very low chance!
With all the news today – Yaaaay SPN S8!!! – including a new Pilot Panic over at Deadline Hollywood, I’m still liking my schedule – if Selection isn’t strong, I could see Cult going behind TVD and including TSC (13 episodes) on the schedule spackle list.
Did you see GG had a .4 yesterday, which dropped from the .5 last week? Yikes. And HOD built on the GG lead-in to a .6, which is even with last week.
What in the world is the CW going to do with GG?
I don’t know what was worse, the .4 or the mere 830,000 that tuned in. If that show gets renewed (which it will) that’s going to be the lowest rated renewal ever in network history!
I say run it in between ANTM cycles. That’s really their only option. They can make their money on syndication and fulfill the actor’s contracts while filling a usually vacant slot. That’s the only benefit I see!
Sad isn’t it, and yes It will get renewed. To bad it will take a slot that could be filled by a really good show.
I guess I don’t see how it can be only renewed for 13 episodes and still fulfill the actor’s contracts. Also the advertisers have contracts to for another year. What happens if the show is only picked up for half a season. Isn’t it required they go another year?
Nah, it won’t take a good slot. I’m certain it’ll be used for filler. Trust me, The CW has enough gaps. They already know Gossip Girl repeats terrible, so that won’t be happening.
The actors have contracts, but there’s nothing in there saying it has to be 22 episodes. That’s decided on a per season basis at renewal time by the network. There are no advertiser contracts yet. That’s what the upfront presentations are for. To sign up advertisers for another year.
I don’t think Gossip Girl can command it’s premium anymore, thus that’s why I don’t think it’ll be getting a solid slot on the schedule.
So, GG renewed for 10 or 11 episodes – not even for a 13 episode final season. That’s actually kind of embarrassing for the show. Maybe it will bridge the winter gap –start after the November sweeps and gone before the February sweeps.
My how the mighty have fallen . . . .
Interesting analysis.
I think if Nikita is renewed it will be for a full 22 (or 23 or 24 same as SPN) episodes.
Personally, I think Secret Circle, Ringer & Hart of Dixie will be cancelled.
Mon
Arrow
Beauty & the Beast
Tue
Carrie Diaries
First Cut
Wed (Dawn Ostroff memorial schedule day)
90210
ANTM/ GG(13 episodes)
Thur
Vampire Diaries
The Selection
Fri
Nikita
Supernatural
Midseason
Cult
I like your schedule! The only thing I’d change really is adding The Secret Circle or Hart of Dixie or both to the midseason list. I love your Dawn Ostroff memorial schedule day. She’s lucky she gets one day! 🙂
For schedule spackle (as they say over at TVby the numbers) any one of HOD, TSC or even Ringer as a 13 episode pick-up would work, but I hope that Mark P is bolder than that — he already has data on those three that says they’re too weak to prosper – why throw good money after bad? I do think the exception might be HOD – it seems to have more of a pulse — the ratings go up & down, which indicates to me that with a little promo push it might go up. Ringer, not so much, since it already had the benefit of a promo campaign (out of which the network got bupkus). To me, TSC is just plain bad. And it seems like too much work to retool it to a point where it might work better especially if there are good pilots to try instead. So OK — let’s add HOD to mid-season. *g*:)
God, the CW desperately needs a semblance of a hit, doesn’t it? Two or *gasp* three shows that get better than 1.0 in the demo. SOMETHING to build on.
And I’ll tell you frankly, I am so happy that SPN is on Fridays where it can quietly churn out episodes for WB’s syndication machine. Its ridiculous for the network that its Friday show SPN has a renew/cancel index of over 1 when CBS’ Blue Bloods only has a .58 (and is renewed!).
Except for TVD, M-TH on the CW sucks and it will take at least two years to build it and then I can see TVD joing SPN on Fridays. (In my dreams Nikita gets seasons 3 & 4 – I’m not sure that can really happen though)
So long as SPN doesn’t crater (and even if it does) the CW has other things to worry about besides its Friday night. SPN – season 11 here we come — I want JA to have those bragging rights over TW. 😉
I’m all for those bragging rights as well! Tom Welling does need to suck it! 😆
If you work in DVR ratings, Supernatural is around a 1.1 or 1.2 consistently, and so is The Secret Circle. Other shows aren’t even breaking 1.0. It’s really sad. In an ideal network situation, a show in it’s 7th year shouldn’t be your number two show. It should be your number five show. NBC has the very same issue with Law and Order: SVU, number one drama in it’s 11th season!
Sorry, where was I? I’m with you on HOD. I think that show has not benefitted at all from a Gossip Girl lead in. The problem is, will it do better mid season? Hard to say. I see potential with it though. As for TSC, like I said, it’s all going to depend on the season two pitch. The network needs to see the creative potential. Ringer has a chance based on that too, but it’s a very low chance!
With all the news today – Yaaaay SPN S8!!! – including a new Pilot Panic over at Deadline Hollywood, I’m still liking my schedule – if Selection isn’t strong, I could see Cult going behind TVD and including TSC (13 episodes) on the schedule spackle list.
Did you see GG had a .4 yesterday, which dropped from the .5 last week? Yikes. And HOD built on the GG lead-in to a .6, which is even with last week.
What in the world is the CW going to do with GG?
I don’t know what was worse, the .4 or the mere 830,000 that tuned in. If that show gets renewed (which it will) that’s going to be the lowest rated renewal ever in network history!
I say run it in between ANTM cycles. That’s really their only option. They can make their money on syndication and fulfill the actor’s contracts while filling a usually vacant slot. That’s the only benefit I see!
Sad isn’t it, and yes It will get renewed. To bad it will take a slot that could be filled by a really good show.
I guess I don’t see how it can be only renewed for 13 episodes and still fulfill the actor’s contracts. Also the advertisers have contracts to for another year. What happens if the show is only picked up for half a season. Isn’t it required they go another year?
Nah, it won’t take a good slot. I’m certain it’ll be used for filler. Trust me, The CW has enough gaps. They already know Gossip Girl repeats terrible, so that won’t be happening.
The actors have contracts, but there’s nothing in there saying it has to be 22 episodes. That’s decided on a per season basis at renewal time by the network. There are no advertiser contracts yet. That’s what the upfront presentations are for. To sign up advertisers for another year.
I don’t think Gossip Girl can command it’s premium anymore, thus that’s why I don’t think it’ll be getting a solid slot on the schedule.
So, GG renewed for 10 or 11 episodes – not even for a 13 episode final season. That’s actually kind of embarrassing for the show. Maybe it will bridge the winter gap –start after the November sweeps and gone before the February sweeps.
My how the mighty have fallen . . . .
I like your schedule Alice; holding the Cult till mid season is a good idea since it’s a 13 episode show. I think Mark needs to make aggressive scheduling moves and not send their weak shows to Friday…
I would do this:
Monday:
8pm- Arrow
9pm- Supernatural
Male oriented shows to counter ABC Dancing and The Voice.
(granted we know the show won’t move, but it’s way to strong to be on Friday and should have never been tossed there to begin with)
Tuesday:
8pm: The Carrie Diaries
9pm: 90210
Wednesday:
8pm: Beauty & the Best
9pm: ATNM
Thursday:
8pm: VD
9pm: The Selection
Friday:
8pm: GG for a final (season) Why waste a good Monday slot on a dying show that gets less than a million viewers.
9pm: Repeats of Arrow or anyone of their new shows.
Hold The Cult for midseason, and maybe keep TSC or Nikita as well. In case any of their new shows fail.
I think the CW will pick up 4 with Cult for Midseason
The Selection (Due to the hype of Hunger games, though it’s more of the Bachelor)
TCD
Arrow
Possibly B&TB even though it could go to First Cut
I just wish they would hurry up lol
Interesting schedule!
I think Supernatural and Arrow would be perfect companions. They would have the same audiences. I see the CW pairing Arrow repeats with Supernatural on Friday. They would want that base. However, they won’t move Supernatural, and they won’t try to debut a show like Arrow on a Friday. They’re kind of stuck.
Monday is a good choice though, although Tuesday and Wednesday would work too. A lot of other nets have reality those nights too. Sadly though, I don’t see it happening either.
The thing about The CW on Fridays is that it’s the one night they’re actually competitive. Especially since Fringe is going away (after 13 eps) and I don’t see Grimm staying there. Dumping Gossip Girl there would be giving that up. I think it’s better they burn that off in between ANTM cycles. They don’t deserve Friday!
I like your schedule Alice; holding the Cult till mid season is a good idea since it’s a 13 episode show. I think Mark needs to make aggressive scheduling moves and not send their weak shows to Friday…
I would do this:
Monday:
8pm- Arrow
9pm- Supernatural
Male oriented shows to counter ABC Dancing and The Voice.
(granted we know the show won’t move, but it’s way to strong to be on Friday and should have never been tossed there to begin with)
Tuesday:
8pm: The Carrie Diaries
9pm: 90210
Wednesday:
8pm: Beauty & the Best
9pm: ATNM
Thursday:
8pm: VD
9pm: The Selection
Friday:
8pm: GG for a final (season) Why waste a good Monday slot on a dying show that gets less than a million viewers.
9pm: Repeats of Arrow or anyone of their new shows.
Hold The Cult for midseason, and maybe keep TSC or Nikita as well. In case any of their new shows fail.
I think the CW will pick up 4 with Cult for Midseason
The Selection (Due to the hype of Hunger games, though it’s more of the Bachelor)
TCD
Arrow
Possibly B&TB even though it could go to First Cut
I just wish they would hurry up lol
Interesting schedule!
I think Supernatural and Arrow would be perfect companions. They would have the same audiences. I see the CW pairing Arrow repeats with Supernatural on Friday. They would want that base. However, they won’t move Supernatural, and they won’t try to debut a show like Arrow on a Friday. They’re kind of stuck.
Monday is a good choice though, although Tuesday and Wednesday would work too. A lot of other nets have reality those nights too. Sadly though, I don’t see it happening either.
The thing about The CW on Fridays is that it’s the one night they’re actually competitive. Especially since Fringe is going away (after 13 eps) and I don’t see Grimm staying there. Dumping Gossip Girl there would be giving that up. I think it’s better they burn that off in between ANTM cycles. They don’t deserve Friday!
My comment seems to have disappeared into the ether. So, redux:
I can’t fault your reasoning for putting TSC and Repeats/Nikita on Fridays, but I’m really hoping SPN gets a better lead-in. Just because SPN is a tough workhorse doesn’t mean it shouldn’t get a break now and then. Even though premiering a new show on Fridays isn’t ideal, they might consider it seeing as everything they have will tank there, and Grimm managed just fine.
Great example, but Grimm is kind of an anomaly. Very few shows succeed on a Friday and stay there. CSI did and was promptly moved. Ditto for The X-Files. I’m extremely certain NBC will be moving Grimm. They have nothing! A show can premiere on a Friday, but it’s a huge risk. NBC had zero hopes for Grimm and didn’t even promote it. It was a happy accident for them.
Considering SPN is the CW’s number two show, the only lead in that can be stronger than a new show is The Vampire Diaries. If a new show does pull Vampire Diaries numbers, or heck even SPN numbers, it will go to another night where they can grow an audience. This network has so little.
While it would be nice that SPN gets a strong lead in, the network just doesn’t have that luxury. It’s the disadvantage of being the established veteran!
Sorry you had problems with your post. Thanks for trying again with the comment.
My comment seems to have disappeared into the ether. So, redux:
I can’t fault your reasoning for putting TSC and Repeats/Nikita on Fridays, but I’m really hoping SPN gets a better lead-in. Just because SPN is a tough workhorse doesn’t mean it shouldn’t get a break now and then. Even though premiering a new show on Fridays isn’t ideal, they might consider it seeing as everything they have will tank there, and Grimm managed just fine.
Great example, but Grimm is kind of an anomaly. Very few shows succeed on a Friday and stay there. CSI did and was promptly moved. Ditto for The X-Files. I’m extremely certain NBC will be moving Grimm. They have nothing! A show can premiere on a Friday, but it’s a huge risk. NBC had zero hopes for Grimm and didn’t even promote it. It was a happy accident for them.
Considering SPN is the CW’s number two show, the only lead in that can be stronger than a new show is The Vampire Diaries. If a new show does pull Vampire Diaries numbers, or heck even SPN numbers, it will go to another night where they can grow an audience. This network has so little.
While it would be nice that SPN gets a strong lead in, the network just doesn’t have that luxury. It’s the disadvantage of being the established veteran!
Sorry you had problems with your post. Thanks for trying again with the comment.
Well if the CW cancels Nikita i will be done with that network period and judging from its rapid fanbase the network is going to be bomabarded with hate mail and they will lose all the viewers who watch Nikita that also watch their other shows. These other shows will lose very single one of them.
Well if the CW cancels Nikita i will be done with that network period and judging from its rapid fanbase the network is going to be bomabarded with hate mail and they will lose all the viewers who watch Nikita that also watch their other shows. These other shows will lose very single one of them.
So you guys didn’t like my ideas huh. Well I still sticking by them.
Nikita is not a show the CW should keep especailly if they keep it on Friday. It’s a terrible lead in for SPN. If they do keep it, they should flip the shows, or move SPN from Friday. It’s fans would follow and a Tuesday night slot would be great. Then they can pair it with Arrow.
As for the renewals announced yesterday. So far so good. None of those were unexpected. Gossip Girls not being announced was. Didn’t know they were looking for a new showrunner, but really the show is doing poorly anyway. If they do cancel it, the network can pick up 5 pilots.
As for TSC…it still has a good chance to be renewed and would pair very well with SPN on Fridays. As long as Nikita is out of the picture.
If The Selection is picked it would do well after TVD. That was my first choice to follw that show, but it didn’t seem to be getting the popularity it needs. And I hope Cult is picked up for 22 episodes. Mysteries always do well.
So you guys didn’t like my ideas huh. Well I still sticking by them.
Nikita is not a show the CW should keep especailly if they keep it on Friday. It’s a terrible lead in for SPN. If they do keep it, they should flip the shows, or move SPN from Friday. It’s fans would follow and a Tuesday night slot would be great. Then they can pair it with Arrow.
As for the renewals announced yesterday. So far so good. None of those were unexpected. Gossip Girls not being announced was. Didn’t know they were looking for a new showrunner, but really the show is doing poorly anyway. If they do cancel it, the network can pick up 5 pilots.
As for TSC…it still has a good chance to be renewed and would pair very well with SPN on Fridays. As long as Nikita is out of the picture.
If The Selection is picked it would do well after TVD. That was my first choice to follw that show, but it didn’t seem to be getting the popularity it needs. And I hope Cult is picked up for 22 episodes. Mysteries always do well.