We are now 9 weeks into the fall television season and by this time we seem to have a good indication of how various shows are performing in all factors of the ratings. It’s been well established that networks aren’t just looking at the live and same day DVR ratings anymore, especially when they keep shrinking. Live +3, Live +7, online viewing, and maybe social media engagement (not really sure on that one yet) also paint a picture and it’s taking longer to pull all that together.
How are the genre shows on each of the major networks doing? Surprisingly, not so bad. They aren’t huge leaders for their networks in most cases (unless you’re The Blacklist or Gotham), but several have no reason to worry about anything.
(All stats from TV By The Numbers)
ABC
Marvel’s Agents of Shield
10/7 – 1.6 to 2.8 DVR +7 – 75% 18-49 demo increase
4474 mil to 7283 mil – 62% increase in live viewers
10/14 – 1.7 to 3.0 DVR +7- 76% 18-49 demo increase
4704 mil to 7797 mil – 66% increase in live viewers
10/21 – 1.6 to 2.9 DVR +7 – 81% 18-49 demo increase
4359 mil to 7629 mil – 75% increase in live viewers
10/28 – 1.7 to 3.0 DVR +7- 76% 18-49 demo increase
4438 mil to 7436 mil – 68% increase in live viewers
Also going for it, for three weeks in a row, it has finished number one in its timeslot in 18-34 men. Here’s also a little PR nugget for 10/14 that ABC was thrilled to claim:
In the most recent Live + 7 Day data, ABC’s “S.H.I.E.L.D.” shot up 76% to a 3.0 rating among Adults 18-49 to nearly tie CBS’ “NCIS: New Orleans (3.1 rating) in the Tuesday 9:00 p.m. hour. In the L+SD ratings, “S.H.I.E.L.D.” trailed the “NCIS”-fueled CBS drama by 6-tenths of a rating point among young adults.
No, this isn’t the runaway huge hit people were hoping for. Even though season two is far more focused and much, much better than season one, it is heavily serialized now, which makes it a prime target for binge viewing. Live + SD ratings seem quiet, but that’s far from the case when DVR is thrown in. It’s one of ABC’s best performers in DVR +7 ratings, especially in the 18-49 demo. Heck, it’s one of the best performers period. Marvel still needs a TV tie in, and this show seems to be fitting the bill.
Once Upon a Time
10/12 – 2.7 to 4.0 DVR +7 – 48% demo increase
10/19 – 2.7 to 3.9 DVR +7 – 44% demo increase
10/26 – 2.4 to 3.5 DVR +7 – 46% demo increase
11/02 – 2.6 to 3.9 DVR +7 – 50% demo increase
The perfect model of consistency and the network’s top performer on Sundays. It’s all good.
Resurrection
10/26 – 1.2 to 2.0 DVR +7 – 67% demo increase
11/02 – 1.4 to 2.3 DVR +7 – 64% demo increase
Given how high performing the other ABC shows are (especially the Shonda Thursdays), the DVR ratings would have to be pretty spectacular to save this one. However, is it an in house show, which does give it an advantage.
Forever
10/07 – 1.2 to 1.9 DVR +7 – 58% 18-49 demo increase
5173 mil to 8108 mil – 57% increase in live viewers
10/14 – 1.1 to 2.0 DVR +7 – 82% 18-49 demo increase
4806 mil to 8085 mil – 68% increase in live viewers
10/21 – 1.2 to 2.1 DVR +7- 75% 18-49 demo increase
4948 mil to 8372 mil – 69% increase in live viewers
10/28 – 1.1 to 2.0 DVR +7 – 82% 18-49 demo increase
4951 mil to 8099 mil – 64% increase in live viewers
Hard to say about this one. The ratings have declined after a good start, but it is a new show at a 10pm show as well that is getting a decent number of overall viewers. All in all, it’s still too early to tell.
CBS
Person of Interest
10/7 – 1.6 to 2.7 DVR +7 – 69% 18-49 demo increase
9638 mil to 13758 mil – 43% increase in live viewers
10/14 – 1.5 to 2.5 DVR +7 – 67% 18-49 demo increase
9717 mil to 13603 mil 40% increase in live viewers
10/21 – 1.5 to 2.4 DVR +7 – 60% 18-49 demo increase
9397 mil to 13279 mil – 41% increase in live viewers
10/28 – 1.7 to 2.6 DVR +7 – 53% 18-49 demo increase
9720 mil to 13357 mil – 37% increase in live viewers
Steady, consistent, and still a strong 10pm performer. With a second run syndication deal already made, there’s no concern about ratings here.
Scorpion
10/6 – 2.6 to 3.9 DVR +7 – 50% 18-49 demo increase
12504 mil to 16542 mil – 37% increase in live viewers
10/13 – 2.4 to 3.6 DVR +7 – 50% 18-49 demo increase
11510 mil to 15691 mil – 36% increase in live viewers
10/20 – 2.4 to 3.8 DVR +7 – 58% 18-49 demo increase
10747 mil to 14987 mil – 41% increase in live viewers
10/27 – 2.3 to 3.6 DVR +7 – 57% 18-49 demo increase
10390 mil to 14638 mil – 41% increase in live viewers
No worries here. CBS has a true hit on their hands.
Elementary has only one week of DVR returns, but it went from a 1.2 to 2.4 increase for the season premiere in the 18-49 demo and a live viewer increase from 7608 mil to 12115 mil (59%). DVR has what has saved this show before, and there’s reason to think it won’t happen again, yet anyway.
FOX
Sleepy Hollow
10/06 – 1.7 to 2.8 DVR +7 – 65% 18-49 demo increase,
4465 mil to 7296 mil – 63% increase in live viewers
10/14 – 1.7 to 2.7 DVR +7 – 59% 18-49 demo increase
10/20 – 1.8 to 2.9 DVR +7 – 61% 18-49 demo increase,
5022 mil to 7852 mil 56% increase in live viewers
10/28 – 1.6 to 2.7 DVR +7 – 69% 18-49 demo increase
4621 mil to 7276 mil 59% increase in live viewers
Gotham
10/06 – 2.5 to 4.5 DVR +7 – 80% 18-49 demo increase
6363 mil to 10882 mil – 71% increase in live viewers
10/14 – 2.4 to 4.1 DVR +7 – 71% 18-49 demo increase
6393 mil to 10338 mil – 62% increase in live viewers
10/20 – 2.3 to 4.0 DVR +7 – 74% 18-49 demo increase
6091 mil to 10124 mil – 66% increase in live viewers
10/28 – 2.2 to 3.7 DVR +7 – 68% 18-49 demo increase
5886 mil to 9662 mil – 64% increase in live viewers
Let’s face it, considering how low rated everything else is on FOX, Gotham and Sleepy Hollow are pretty damned safe, even though Sleepy Hollow has declined a bit from last season. Monday nights FTW.
NBC
The Blacklist
10/06 – 2.6 to 4.7 81% 10067 to 16537 64%
10/20 – 2.4 to 4.4 83% 9338 to 15372 65%
10/27 – 2.5 to 4.4 76% 9567 to 15711 64%
The live number alone would score an easy renewal on NBC, let alone the massive DVR numbers. Number one scripted show on the network by A LOT. Nuff said.
Grimm
10/24 – 1.4 to 2.4 71% 5281 mil to 7852 mil 53%
10/31 – 1.1 to 2.1 91% 4537 mil to 7211 mil 59%
Grimm just scored a second run syndication deal on TNT, most likely for their popular AM genre block. That’s money in the bank for NBC arm Universal Television, who produces the show. A fifth season is a done deal. It’s still the number one scripted show on Fridays in terms of 18-49 demo. Nothing will ever do better in that time slot.
Constantine
10/31 – .9 to 1.7 89%
No solid numbers DVR +7 numbers on Constantine on 10/24, but here’s a press release from NBC touting the ratings performance in L + 3:
L+3: The previous week’s “Constantine” on Oct. 24 grew by +44% in 18-49 (from a 1.39 to a 2.00) and 1.9 million viewers overall (4.3 million vs. 6.2 million) going from L+SD to L+3. The Oct. 24 “Constantine” was the #1 non-sports telecast in the hour on the Big 4 networks in L+3 18-49 ratings.
Yeah, hard to say. Honestly, those aren’t bad DVR numbers. NBC is always lukewarm with its genre shows though, especially ones produced by outside production companies like NBC. It does seem to perform just as good as anything though on Fridays at 10pm. Bottom line, it’s still too early to tell, but I don’t see if getting more than 13 episodes this season, especially with Hannibal ready for the second half.
The CW
It’s a little trickier getting accurate counts for CW shows. They don’t all consistently show up on ratings charts every week, at least the ones publicly released. Some numbers are figured by press releases (which The CW loves to put out). Also, CW are viewed more online. Last season, the number of people watching CW shows online was roughly 30 percent. That’s likely higher now. But for live ratings, what we see is a mixed bag, unless you’re The Flash.
The Flash
10/7 – 1.9 to 2.6 DVR +7 39% 18-49 demo increase
4.79 mil to 6.8 mil 41% increase in total viewers
10/21 – 1.5 to 2.0 DVR +3 – 33% 18-49 demo increase
1.3 to 1.7 DVR +3 – 31% 18-34 demo increase
1.5 to 1.9 DVR +3 – 33% Men 18-34 demo increase
1.8 to 2.5 DVR +3 – 39% Men 18-49 demo increase
3.59 mil to 5.22mil DVR +3 – 46% increase in total viewers
10/28 – 1.4 to 2.3 DVR +7 64% 18-49 demo increase
Let’s see, number one show on the network, earned a full season order after only being on the air 2 weeks, season premiere with DVR factored in was the most watched premiere (and possibly show) in THE HISTORY of The CW, extremely dominant in 18-34 and 18-49 men, an elusive demo for The CW and…what else do I need? I’m very stunned this show doesn’t have a second season renewal already.
Supernatural
10/7 – 1.1 to 1.5 DVR +7 – 36% increase in 18-49 demo
10/14 – 1.0 to 1.4 DVR +3 – 35% increase in 18-49 demo
2.13 mil to 2.87 mil – 35% DVR +3 increase in viewers
10/21 – .9 to 1.3 DVR +3 – 44% increase in 18-49 demo
.8 to 1.1 DVR +3 – 38% increase in 18-34 demo
.8 to 1.2 DVR +3 – 50% increase in Men 18-49 demo
2.08 mil to 2.8 mil – 35% DVR +3 increase in viewers
10/28 – .8 to 1.3 DVR +7 – 63% increase in 18-49 demo
Supernatural is basically in the position it ends when the producers/actors/everyone involved says it’s time to end. Tracking ratings is really for bragging rights for it’s fan base, but literally useless for it’s network. Ratings are actually slightly down from last year and the culprit is the direct competition with Marvel’s Agent’s of S.H.I.E.L.D., which shares a similar viewing audience. Still, that is zero reason for concern. There’s no show safer right now on all the networks.
Arrow
10/15 – .8 – 1.4 DVR +7 75% increase
Arrow is steady in DVR right now, running returns in all categories around 30 to 40%, thus making things very quiet for tracking. It’s live ratings have been impressive though. In terms of 18-49 demo and overall viewers, the show is number two right now, behind the very show that was spun off from it. It’s considered to be a very big brand for The CW and just hit 50 episodes. They will get at least 50 more.
The Vampire Diaries
10/2 – .9 to 1.6 DVR +7 – 78% 18-49 demo increase
10/16 – .9 to 1.5 DVR +7 – 67% 18-49 demo increase
10/22 – .8 to 1.4 DVR +7 – 75% 18-49 demo increase
10/31 – .8 to 1.3 DVR +7 – 63% 18-49 demo increase
Things have been pretty quiet with The Vampire Diaries these days as well, but again not a concern. Live ratings have really shrunk, but there still seems to be interest given the big jumps in DVR. The Vampire Diaries is always huge in online viewing as well and it’s still a big brand for this network.
The Originals
10/6 – .7 to 1.2 DVR +7 – 71% 18-49 demo increase
10/20 – .7 to 1.2 DVR +7 – 71% 18-49 demo increase
10/27 – .6 to 1.2 DVR +7 – 100% 18-49 demo increase
Here’s a fun PR Note from The CW:
In Live + 7 Day delayed viewing this season, THE ORIGINALS is averaging a +65% increase in total viewers compared to Live + Same Day alone, a +64% jump in A18-34 and a +68% gain in A18-49.
A move to Monday has resulted in a loss from what The Originals earned last year on Tuesday, but it has improved Monday for The CW by a lot. Monday is a very stiff night for viewing and The Originals is getting some pretty large jumps thanks to DVR. Just like it’s parent show, The Vampire Diaries, it does very well in online viewing. I’m not going to say that renewal for The Originals is a done deal, but given how it did improve a very sorry time slot for this network, The CW does have to be happy. It also helps that creatively this show is on fire.
Reign
10/2 – .4 to .7 DVR +7 – 75% 18-49 demo increase
10/9 – .4 to .7 DVR +7 – 75% 18-49 demo increase
10/16 – .4 to .7 DVR +7 – 75% 18-49 demo increase
The 100
10/22 – .5 to .8 DVR +7 60% demo increase
Reign and The 100’s ratings are marginal and it’s still way to early to tell about their fates, especially when we don’t see online ratings. Several other shows on the network are doing better that they are. The 100 does better in overall viewers and slightly better in demo viewers than Reign, but there’s another indicator out there that could work in The 100’s favor. Maybe. Actually, that maybe is true for several of the shows above.
There’s also this thing called “social rankings” which measures online engagement for TV shows. Oh yes, when it comes to scripted television, Genre shows do well on these lists. The CW especially fares well. Here’s how genre shows rank on these lists (based on top 25) by week in October.
Social Rankings the week of October 6th:
2 – Supernatural
3 – Supernatural (it had 2 airings that week)
4 – The Flash
11 – Arrow
12 – Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D
13 – The Vampire Diaries
16 – Sleepy Hollow
19 – The Blacklist
24 – The Originals
The week of October 13th:
5 – Gotham
8 – Once Upon A Time
10 – The Vampire Diaries
11 – Supernatural
12 – Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.
13 – The Flash
14 – Sleepy Hollow
18 – The Blacklist
20 – Arrow
The week of October 20th:
3 – Once Upon A Time
7 – Gotham
8 – The Vampire Diaries
11 – Sleepy Hollow
12 – The 100
13 – Constantine
14 – Supernatural
17 – The Blacklist
18 – Grimm
21 – The Flash
23 – Arrow
24 – Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.
The week of October 27th:
5 – Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.
6 – The Vampire Diaries
7 – Gotham
9 – Supernatural
10 – Once Upon a Time
12 – The Flash
14 – Sleepy Hollow
15 – The 100
16 – The Blacklist
21 – Arrow
So what does all this “social chatter” mean? How important is “2nd Screen Score?” Who really knows. You’ll notice a lot of CW shows consistently on here, as well as genre shows on networks that aren’t CBS. However, the social engagement of the fans of these shows cannot be denied. It’s certainly not determined if a show turns up on this list it will be easily renewed. But it could be a factor in the decision. If you don’t believe me, remember that online engagement is one of the reasons super low rated Beauty and The Beast is still on the air.
So all in all, October is painting a better picture, but in most cases it’s way to early to tell. Still, isn’t it fun to geek out over numbers? Which shows are you rooting for?
